The rule I am breaking here is “Car Charts always includes a chart.” Nope, no chart today. I am granting myself license to do this because:
General MacArthur said I could
It’s my birthday today (69th, *sigh*)
It’s Eclipse Day here in Cleveland, so the world may end anyway.1
Instead you get a link to a podcast. The Driving Ahead series from NADA, with Jonathan Collegio grilling me. It’s lively and entertaining, up until the point when I start talking. If you have better things to do with your time than listen to this (I sure hope so), here’s the AI-generated summary, from notta.ai:
The meeting covers a wide range of topics related to the automotive industry, with a particular focus on the future of electric vehicles (EVs), the role of dealerships, and the impact of emerging technologies. The discussion delves into the projected adoption rates of EVs, the challenges faced by automakers in meeting regulatory targets, and the debate surrounding plug-in hybrid vehicles. Additionally, the participants explore the evolving retail landscape, the potential impact of autonomous vehicles, and the dynamics between automakers and dealerships.
Key takeaways:
While automakers have set ambitious targets for EV adoption, the actual demand and adoption rates have not met initial expectations, partly due to regulatory pressures rather than market forces.
Plug-in hybrid vehicles are seen as a viable bridging technology, offering a compromise between pure EVs and internal combustion engines, particularly in rural areas with limited charging infrastructure.
The role of dealerships is expected to persist, with a gradual evolution towards a more retail-focused model, acting as independently owned company stores with increasing control from automakers.
The path to fully autonomous vehicles remains challenging, with significant technological hurdles and edge cases that need to be addressed before widespread adoption.
Automakers are likely to face challenges in maintaining pricing discipline and managing production levels, as they often set overly optimistic sales targets in an effort to gain market share.
Relevant numerical data:
Projected EV adoption rate by 2030-2035: Over 50% of light-duty vehicles sold in the United States.
Estimated profitability levels during COVID-19: Three times higher than pre-pandemic levels, falling back now to, with luck, 1.5x.
Sales target for 2024: nearly 16 million units, forecast for 2025: 17 million units.
Real pearls of wisdom there. Apparently autonomous vehicles are technologically challenging. Who knew?
I promise: back to charts, later this week!
Meanwhile, I have to get my Masonic chants started…
My favorite Eclipse Conspiracy Theory: ”On the day of the eclipse, Masonic rituals are planned worldwide that will usher in the New World Order.” My father was a Mason and as far as I could tell the main ritual was hanging around the Masonic Hall, holding cookouts and drinking beers. World never ended, to the best of my knowledge.