Quick Hits #4 - Tesla Robotaxi viability
Now back from two weeks' vacation in Italy and Budapest!
Today’s QH is devoted entirely to two gorgeous charts from @edgecase411 over on X. This remarkable person devotes large amounts of time and energy to analyzing Tesla FSD, which presumably represents the basis for the technology which would operate the robotaxi concept to be unveiled in August. Now, @edgecase411 is clearly a Tesla fan (even a “stan”), but one has to respect the comprehensiveness and honesty of the work generously shared with us all. Herewith two charts showing his (her?) evaluation of the maturity of FSD’s capabilities over time:
As always, misinterpretations of data like this are my own: please go see @edgecase411’s feed for the authoritative take1. And @edgecase411 is just one person, with one person’s opinion (though a very well-researched opinion!). But my interpretation is this: if we need to see something close to 10 out of 10 on all or nearly all of these dimensions, in order to be able to release a fool-proof, commercialized robotaxi into the wild, then Tesla is far from being able to do that. Simple extrapolation, for example, would say they need a few more years. And that is just to get the tech to work: a functional robotaxi fleets needs a lot more behind-the-scenes infrastructure to work - just ask Waymo!
Anyway, these charts may help readers think through and evaluate for themselves the trajectory of Tesla’s latest update of their robotaxi initiative, including what impact it might have on the gyrating stock price.
(By the way, can anyone explain how the latest FSD updates went backward in terms of being able to handle flashing red lights?)
For those interested in where such data comes from, and prompted by Loyal Reader Steve Young to share such a source, see here: https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ Whether one is excited or bored or annoyed by Tesla’s army of fans, one must concede that their interest in crowdsourcing Tesla-related data of all sorts is very impressive.